A recurrent theme in Australia’s defence strategy has been our reliance on and need to defend Australia’s trade routes in a globalised world. The strengths and vulnerabilities of our linkages to the world are becoming more evident, and are the focus of this report.

The authors of this paper assert that Australia must invest in defence capability commensurate with the challenges of the strategic environment. Crucially, the role of defence to help deter wars, while being ready for times of conflict, requires spending even in times of relative peace.

This publication is being released in anticipation of a federal election as a guide for the next government within its first months and over the full term. This 2022 agenda acknowledges that an economically prosperous and socially cohesive Australia is a secure and resilient Australia.

The iron ore market is wrong-footing forecasters again, as it has throughout the last 20 years. This report argues that Australia’s troubled relationship with China will be influenced by which path the iron ore market takes over the medium term.

What if China were to attempt to seize Taiwan by force and the US and allies responded militarily? One consequence would be the disruption of China’s trade with many countries, including Australia. This study is focused on the likely short-term shock to Australia’s economy and aims to contribute to an understanding of the nature of...