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Person

Nicholas Garvin

Report

When housing supply hits the market: apartment presales and Sydney price trends


Sydney experienced its largest housing supply expansion on record in 2018–19, but research indicates that its impact on housing prices was small relative to other price drivers. This housing supply boom was primarily large apartment buildings. While prices were in decline when these buildings were being completed, this data shows they were sold years before.
Report

Moving to the country: analysing regional migrant outcomes


Regional visas are a growing part of Australia’s skilled migration system. They are intended to support regional economies and ease pressure on major cities. However this analysis finds many regional visa holders are not in places the public may think of as 'regional'. It concludes that regional policy may not be having its desired effect.
Briefing paper

Housing leverage and the capital gains tax discount


This note on the capital gains tax (CGT) discount focuses on leverage distortions by investigating data on housing investments. By examining the individual rental income and capital gains returns for 900,000 housing investments held over 2008 to 2025, the note demonstrates how and why the CGT discount encourages investors to borrow more than they otherwise...
Briefing paper

Everyone is different: the problem with a flat capital gains tax discount


One objective of Australia’s capital gains tax (CGT) discount is to approximate inflation and tax real gains. But because real returns vary widely across investors, a flat discount systematically misses the mark. Using data on 1.5 million property investments (2008–2025), this paper shows real returns range from losses to strong gains.
Briefing paper

Understanding Australia's decline in housing mobility


From 1996 to 2021, Australia’s rate of housing mobility declined from 18% to 15%. This paper assesses the implications of this shift and outlines the underlying drivers. Past work links this to Australia’s decline in job mobility, but this paper finds at most weak links. The findings challenge a number of common narratives.

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