Roshen Fernando

Policy report

Why climate policy scenarios are important, how to use them, and what has been learned

In response to climate uncertainty, researchers, businesses and policy-makers are turning to scenario analysis. The authors of this paper argue that greater use of models will help policy-makers understand the range of uncertainties and the sensitivity of policy outcomes, based on different model assumptions.

Antimicrobial resistance: designing a comprehensive macroeconomic modeling strategy

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a dominant and growing global health threat. This study summarises the existing literature on the identified factors driving AMR and reviews the factors that have been considered in existing macroeconomic studies. The paper also includes the major policy implications arising from...

Global economic impacts of climate shocks, climate policy, and changes in climate risk assessment

This study assesses the global macroeconomic consequences of changes in climate risk. The authors also explore the impact of country-specific, economy-wide carbon taxes as a representative policy action to drive the global economy to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Working paper

Macroeconomic policy adjustments due to COVID-19: scenarios to 2025 with a focus on Asia

This paper updates the analysis of the global macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in an earlier paper, with data as of late October 2020. It also extends the focus to Asian economies, and explores four alternative policy interventions coordinated across all economies.
Working paper

Global macroeconomic scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic

The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak (which is optimistic), will significantly impact the global economy in the coming years. The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic under plausible scenarios are substantial and the ongoing economic adjustment is far from over.