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Newspoll and the new reality of post-election polling
AFTER the 2010 election, with its drawn-out count and those interminable crossbench negotiations, opposition leader Tony Abbott pointed out that for the first time in living memory the victor, Labor, hadn’t enjoyed an immediate opinion poll boost. But then came 7 September 2013, the contest that elevated him to prime minister, and for a second...
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Labor’s Queensland problem, and other reasons to be cautious
The national election pendulum might swing Labor’s way, but it’s in the states that the seats will be won AT THE last federal election, three years ago, the national two-party-preferred swing to the Coalition was 3.6 per cent. The two states that shifted the most were the only ones still run by Labor state governments...
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Election 2016: Reasons to be cheerful
There are seven reasons why the Coalition might think things are going well. And the same goes for Labor WHO will win the election on 2 July? With the first polls registering 50–50, the contest is competitive. The Coalition and Labor both have reasons to be optimistic – seven on each side, by my reckoning...
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An early victory in the next carbon war
By taking the initiative on the dreaded three-letter word, Labor has scored an important win Federal Labor has released its climate change policy for the election, or at least an outline, and in one crucial respect the opposition can declare mission accomplished. Its big win was in the battle over terminology. Leader Bill Shorten and...
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There’s more than one way of thinking big
Kevin Rudd’s fate is a cautionary tale for an announcement-prone Malcolm Turnbull WHEN Kevin Rudd began his fleeting second prime ministership in mid 2013, he immediately set about filling the gaping authority vacuum that had troubled Australians for three years. His every move was aimed at generating incumbency, reassuring Australians that finally someone was in...