The national election pendulum might swing Labor’s way, but it’s in the states that the seats will be won

AT THE last federal election, three years ago, the national two-party-preferred swing to the Coalition was 3.6 per cent. The two states that shifted the most were the only ones still run by Labor state governments, Tasmania (by a huge 9.4 per cent) and South Australia (by 5.5 per cent). In both cases, the state governments were ageing and unpopular; the first had been in power since 1998, the second since 2002.

In the three years since then, governments have been voted out in Tasmania, Victoria and Queensland. Tasmania shifted from Labor to Liberal; the others the opposite direction. And, sure enough, the latest Newspoll consolidated analysis, published today, shows the biggest swing to Labor in Western Australia, home to the oldest Coalition government, and the smallest in South Australia, where Labor is still in power. Overall, Labor’s lead over April–May was 51 per cent after preferences…

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