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Fifty–fifty vision: the pollsters’ preference problem

Publisher
Public opinion Government Elections Australia
Description

Ipsos and Newspoll have brought bad news for the government, but both parties would be wise to stay calm

WHAT to make of today’s Newspoll, which has the parties level after preferences at 50 per cent each? It follows a closer-than-usual 52–48 Ipsos poll in Fairfax papers last week and a general narrowing since late last year.
Newspoll has already rippled around ABC radio and the rest of the media. Unfortunately for the government, parliament is sitting this week, and each element of politics will be interpreted through the prism of Labor’s apparent surge and momentum. Everything Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison said and did over the last fortnight will be reanalysed and found even more wanting. Bill Shorten will be depicted as a man of stature, conviction and wit…

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