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Risk assessment

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Risk factors
Risk stratification
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Decision making
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Risk assessment
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Report

Hedging our bets: a potential Japanese option for managing risk in the AUKUS Optimal Pathway


A capable sovereign submarine capability is a core requirement for Australia’s defence over the next two decades, and there are known risks that could prevent that happening. This report proposes that Australia should explore the backup option of leasing or acquiring advanced conventional submarine capability from Japan.
Report

Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion: interim report


The interim report examines the circumstances surrounding the antisemitic Bondi terrorist attack on 14 December 2025 in Sydney, Australia, and considers any other issues requiring urgent or immediate action. It outlines the threat environment, security arrangements, emergency response, the Commonwealth and national counter-terrorism architecture, and legislative frameworks. The report contains 14 recommendations.
Report

Parliamentary rules in democratic backsliding and resilient design


Democratic backsliding often advances not through dramatic constitutional change, but through the quiet manipulation of parliamentary procedure. This report shows how rules on agendas, debate, discipline and legislative scrutiny can be turned into tools for silencing opposition, concentrating power and weakening democratic accountability. It distils lessons for building more resilient parliaments.
Report

Acceleration is not a strategy: a framework for directing AI towards public value before it's too late


The politics of artificial intelligence (AI) is set to drastically change in 2026 as recent technical breakthroughs are implemented across the economy. This report draws reflections from work on AI policy and highlights next steps, with recommendations for governments seeking to demonstrate that they are intervening ambitiously in their citizens’ interests.
Briefing paper

Microplastics, forever chemicals and other contaminants


Microplastics, forever chemicals and other contaminants comprise a diverse set of substances and particles. Attention has intensified on the possible human health impacts of micro- and nanoplastics, PFAS and related contaminants. This brief provides an assessment of the current science, setting out what is known, what is indicated by emerging evidence, and what remains uncertain.