In undertaking this study, ACIL Allen has developed a financial model based on two production scenarios where significant oil discoveries are made in the Great Australian Bight and those discoveries are developed during the next decade. ACIL Allen has endeavoured to use assumptions in its modelling derived from credible sources, but recognises that the forecasting of some variables, such as future oil prices, the size of the hydrocarbon discovery, and field development costs, and future tax changes, is difficult.
The financial models have been used as the source of inputs to the economic impact modelling using Tasman Global, ACIL Allen’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The economic impacts of an oil basin development in the Great Australian Bight are reported and summarised in this report.
The study examines two possible development scenarios; a Base Case Development Scenario (Base Case) of a resource of 1.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent liquids, and a High Case Development Scenario (High Case) based on the production potential of the Bass Strait, of a resource of 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent liquids. A base and high case have been used to highlight a plausible range of development opportunities that could emerge in the Great Australian Bight. To put the significance of these scenarios into context, the Bass Strait development has produced over four billion barrels of crude oil and a further eight billion cubic feet of gas since the development commenced in 1969.