This paper examines the Indonesian government’s perspective of the West Papua independence movement and its interests in maintaining sovereign control over the territory, despite growing tensions and escalating violence.
- The coming months will likely see the issue of West Papuan independence reignite due to the expiry of special autonomy laws and independence developments in Bougainville.
- The potential economic output of West Papua for Indonesia and a lack of international support will continue to work against the independence movement.
- In the current geopolitical climate, concerns over China’s regional influence will heighten sensitivities surrounding the potential vulnerability of an independent West Papua.
- While Indonesia may face increased pressure from Pacific Island countries over West Papua, Jakarta can adopt a number of strategies to counter that pressure.
- For the foreseeable future, the Indonesian government will continue its strategy of exerting military control while promising economic development to suppress calls for independence.