The purpose of this publication is to provide technical and market data that informs the decision-making processes of market participants, new investors, and jurisdictional bodies as they assess opportunities in the national electricity market over a 10-year outlook period. This publication incorporates reliability assessments against the reliability standard and interim reliability measure, including AEMO’s reliability forecasts, indicative reliability forecasts, and Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection.

With up to 62% of its coal fleet now expected to close before 2033, Australia's NEM is perched on the edge of one of the largest transformations since the market was formed over 20 years ago. The scale of opportunity to meet an imminent and growing need for firm capacity, new forms of energy production, and significant consumer energy investments is unparalleled in Australia's energy history. This ESOO shows that imminent and urgent investment is needed to meet this opportunity, or the reliability of the NEM will be at risk.