What explains whether someone who supports an armed movement in a foreign war turns to plotting a terrorist attack at home?Using data on 129 Australian supporters of Islamic State, this paper examines the impact of contextual and dynamic factors relating to strategic logic, mobilising structures and security measures. 

It finds that the strategic priority Islamic State publicly placed on transnational terrorism at a given time was most important, followed by whether the supporter was subjected to travel restrictions and law enforcement interactions, only then followed by micro-level factors traditionally focused on in quantitative studies of individual involvement in terrorism.