This report provides an overview of gas use in Victoria, the climate impact of gas, gas industry demand forecasts, Victoria's new 2035 emissions reduction targets & comparison of gas industry forecasts with emissions targets. 

In the lead-up to the 2022 state election, the Andrews government announced a new target to cut emissions by 75% to 80% by 2035. This research report reveals that closing coal power stations will not be enough to achieve this target. A substantial ‘emissions gap’ will need to be met by other sectors, including by reducing gas use. 

However, some gas industry forecasts assume very high levels of gas consumption until 2040, which poses a major problem for future emissions. If the most bullish of these forecasts come to pass, gas burned in Victorian homes and small businesses would be responsible for up to 37% of Victorian emissions by 2035 – more than triple the current share. Urgent government action is needed to address this looming problem, including strengthening the policies and incentives for electrification in Victoria’s Gas Substitution Roadmap.