The report provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal climate predictions. It projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development. The report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850–1900. 

Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean and rising sea levels.

Key messages

• 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record.
• 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average.
• 70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C.
• Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C.
• Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average.
• Precipitation patterns have big regional variations.