Australia’s intelligence partnership with the United States (US) will continue to underpin its national security, and there is no readily available ‘Plan B’ to replace exquisite capabilities shared through the Five Eyes alliance. This explainer uses the evidence of the second Trump Administration’s first twelve months to revisit the assessment of how Trump’s approach to US intelligence is affecting, and will affect in the future, Australia’s national intelligence community and by extension its national interests. 

The explainer also explores how Five Eyes cooperation is currently under visible strain, with disruptions and exclusions risking undermining trust – including in shared intelligence assessments.

The conclusion reached is that, regardless of whether this is permanent or temporary, Australia should enhance the fields in which it has, or can develop, genuine sovereign intelligence capabilities and thinking. 

Key findings

• Should both Australia and the US continue to assess China as the pacing threat internationally, the intelligence partnership will likely remain mutually beneficial and strong.
• US policy relating to traditional relationships has changed, eroding predictability and potentially exposing allies – Australia included.
• Gaining a better understanding of, and then addressing, where Australia can reduce critical dependencies will help protect national interests in a volatile alliance landscape while positioning Australia to be a better ally whether times are stable or unstable.