Democratic erosion is the incremental and multifaceted deterioration in the freedoms, guarantees and processes vital to the functioning of democracy. Various studies have tried to pinpoint one cause or set of causes of democratic erosion. This report argues that democratic erosion is a systems problem that is best understood by applying systems thinking to identify and explore the complex processes and pathways behind the phenomenon.

Key findings

• Democracies do not usually collapse abruptly; they erode due to the gradual weakening of democratic norms, guardrails and institutions. Democratic erosion can lead to autocracy, but more often it results in lower democratic quality short of complete breakdown.
• All instances of democratic erosion are characterised by the following interplay: conditions that provide an opportunity; actors who exploit these conditions for their anti-democratic agenda; and causal pathways that enable these conditions and actors to hollow out democracy.
• We identify five reinforcing loops of democratic erosion: anti-democratic actors consolidate power; weakening of balancing institutions; entrenched division; loss of faith in democracy; and use of political violence.