This speech discusses the 'new model' of great power relations between China and the US, potential threats to this model, and what additional steps could be taken to increase the likelihood of achieving it.

Introduction

In June of this year, I gave a speech on “The New Model of Sino-US Major Power Relations” at the World Peace Forum in Beijing, China.  In that speech, I tried to describe the basic characteristics of this ‘new model’ of relations, the reasons for thinking that it could be achieved, why the effort might fail, and what steps could be taken to increase the likelihood of success.

The speech seemed to be well received by both the Americans and Chinese in the audience.  I want to draw heavily from that speech here tonight.  Then I want to discuss what really has to happen if the promise of a ‘new model’ is to be realised.  And finally I want to discuss an alternative model coming out of Moscow that I fear may have some attraction for Chinese leaders.

It was President Xi Jinping who first proposed a ‘new model’ of ‘great power’ or ‘major country’ relations.  President Obama agreed that the two countries would seek both to develop the principles of this ‘new model’ of relations and to operationalise those principles in concrete and practical cooperation of mutual benefit to both nations.

Historically, when a new major power has emerged on the world stage, it has usually resulted in confrontation and conflict between that new power and the existing major powers.  The example most cited is the First World War, which most scholars attribute to the rise of Germany and the challenge this presented to Great Britain.  President Obama and President Xi want to make sure that China’s dramatic rise as a major global power does not provoke a similar confrontation and conflict between China and the United States.

So why do these two countries think they can break the historical pattern?  There are several reasons.