This report presents New Zealand's employment forecasts for 2016 to 2019 (March years). 

Employment forecasts for 2016 to 2019 (March years) are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry’s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training over the next 2-3 years.

The Ministry uses a short-term forecasting model that draws on the latest macroeconomic forecasts by the Treasury and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, covering overall GDP growth as well as detailed forecasts of terms of trade, exchange rates and interest rates.The detailed macroeconomic forecasts enable economic activity in broad industries to be forecast consistent with overall economic growth.

The Ministry used model-based forecasts of industry level economic activity and productivity (the latter moderated by the Ministry following an analysis of other forecasts produced for individual sectors) to derive forecasts of industry employment. The industry level employment forecasts are then used to forecast employment by occupations and by skill levels by using occupational shares across industries. The regional employment by industries is forecast next, followed by occupations by industries across the regions.

The forecasts suggest overall employment demand will be strong in the near term in response to domestic-focused growth supported by strong activity in the construction, private services and hospitality industries. Employment growth has peaked in 2015 and is forecast to weaken in 2016 before averaging about 2.1 per cent over the next three years to 2019.