Introduction

Changes to global energy framework over the next two decades will have profound geopolitical implications, even if the fuel mix does not change radically. These trends are magnified in the Indo-Pacific region which is becoming a much more important energy consumption centre as its economies expand, albeit at uneven rates. As global economic weight shifts towards the region in coming years, and geopolitical relations within the region are reformed, concerns over access to energy and raw materials will increase. This can lead to resource nationalism and potential conflict over control of resources.

Thucydides’ Trap—the phenomenon describing a rising power challenging a status quo power—is becoming commonly used in reference to China’s rise, but it need not be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The same can be said about nationalism and conflict driven by energy security concerns. As nations within the Indo-Pacific become global economic and diplomatic powers, there needs to be conscious effort to understand evolving patterns of energy interdependence, and the motivations behind national energy strategies. These drivers are complex—touching on a range of political, economic, technical and market issues—and vary from nation to nation as well as over time.

The purpose of the Perth USAsia Centre’s Indo-Pacific Energy Security Program is to better understand energy security concerns and propose practical regional solutions. The ultimate aim is to avoid conflict and ensure all nations can access energy to power their economies. This involves devising approaches ahead of crises. During radical change, shocks and volatility can result in ad hoc energy policies which exacerbate existing political tensions that undermine regional energy security as a whole. Given the Indo-Pacific is home to both supplier and consumer nations, mechanisms that promote transparent, rules-based and liquid markets will be critical for ensuring the region’s energy security.