Aim: To develop a method for forecasting the NSW remand and sentenced prisoner populations. Method: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with other time series as input variables were employed to estimate and forecast changes in the remand and sentenced prisoner populations. Models were tested by estimating model parameters over the period January 1998 –...

This report covers trends in crime across 154 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in New South Wales over the 24 months to June 2013. Regional trends The Northern, North Western, Murray and Far Western Statistical Divisions (SDs) did not exhibit any upward trends in any the major offences. Eight SDs recorded an upward trend in at...

Aim: The Medically Supervised Injecting Centre (MSIC) opened in Kings Cross in May 2001. This paper examines whether there have been: (i) increases in the volume of robbery, theft and illicit drug offences in Kings Cross Local Area Command (LAC) up until December 2012 or; (ii) increases in the percentage of Kings Cross illicit drug...

Aim: To determine whether the NSW Forum Sentencing program is more effective than the conventional sentencing process in reducing recidivism. Method: Offenders referred to Forum Sentencing in 2011 were matched with offenders who were ‘eligible’ for Forum Sentencing but who were sentenced in a NSW Local Court where Forum Sentencing was not operating. These two...

This bulletin uses propensity score matching to compare reoffending rates between adults given a community service order (CSO) and those given bonds (both supervised and unsupervised) or a suspended sentence (both supervised and unsupervised).