Australia's Safeguard Mechanism – designed to cut industrial climate pollution – is up for review in 2026–27. This new modelling shows the scheme is on track to fall well short of Australia’s 2035 climate target unless urgent reforms are made. The report finds that the scheme is being gamed by coal and gas corporations.

To understand the potential risks to meeting the Safeguard Mechanism emissions budget, RepuTex was engaged by the Climate Council and the Australian Conservation Foundation to model the potential effects of higher-than-expected emissions growth due to variation in fossil fuel production, and new entrants, on the Safeguard Mechanism emissions budget through to 2030. This report outlines...

This report models the impact of the proposed National Energy Guarantee (NEG) on Australia’s carbon emissions and on National Electricity Market (NEM) wholesale prices by 2030 under the Turnbull Government’s 26% emissions reduction target and a higher 45% target. The research shows that the government’s plan fails on emissions and on power prices.