RepuTex has been engaged by Greenpeace Australia Pacific (Greenpeace) to analyse the impact of the proposed NEG by 2030. Specifically, analysis considers the impact of more ambitious emissions targets under the NEG on wholesale electricity prices.

The focus of this report is the analysis of annual average wholesale electricity price in the National Electricity Market (NEM) under the modelled NEG emissions reduction scenarios.

Analysis initially considers the impact of a 26% emissions reduction target under the NEG by 2030. Given the high levels of committed investment in renewable energy, this may be considered a Base Case view of the NEM under “current national policy” (state & federal).

Scenarios then investigate the impact of a materially different projection assuming higher emissions reduction ambition, including a 45% emissions reduction target in the electricity sector (from 2005 levels) by 2030.

Part one of this report provides an introduction to our modelling approach. Part two outlines our modelling assumptions and expectations for new entrant investment and greenhouse gas emissions. Part three presents our electricity price expectations for each scenario.