Economic forecasting
Alternative labels
Demand forecasting
Report
Future directions: ways forward for the economies of Blacktown, Cumberland, Parramatta and The Hills – the Central City District of Sydney
The report examines the economic trajectory of the Central City District economies of Western Sydney in the boom years prior to the COVID-19 recession.
Policy report
The MMT hoax
Economic history teaches us that sharply deteriorating macroeconomic conditions create a vacuum for alternative policy-oriented frameworks to emerge. This paper evaluates the macroeconomic worth of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and concludes that adhering to the policy prescriptions of MMT would lead to disastrous macroeconomic consequences far worse than those it seeks to remedy.
Working paper
Australian labour force participation: historical trends and future prospects
This paper outlines trends in labour force participation rates over recent decades that can be explained by a model with identified age and cohort effects, and a limited number of other covariates. This paper represents a first attempt at using this type of empirical life-cycle framework for producing longer-term projections of participation rates in Australia.
Discussion paper
Monetary policy, equity markets and the information effect
How monetary policy affects the economy is a central question in macroeconomics. Standard economic thinking predicts interest rate cuts boost economic activity. This idea has recently been challenged by claims that changes in monetary policy have a so-called ‘information effect’. Calvin He explores this concept further in this discussion paper.
Report
Global economic impacts of climate shocks, climate policy, and changes in climate risk assessment
This study assesses the global macroeconomic consequences of changes in climate risk. The authors also explore the impact of country-specific, economy-wide carbon taxes as a representative policy action to drive the global economy to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.