The author of this report argues that nuclear-powered submarines will be central to Australia’s defence strategy in contingencies prioritised by the Defence Strategic Review, such as defeating threats of invasion or stand-off attack, countering a naval blockade, and supporting the regional balance of power.

The Australian Government, alongside its AUKUS partners, is implementing an ambitious and complex plan for Australia to field nuclear-powered, conventionally-armed submarines. In this paper, the authors assess whether the AUKUS Optimal Pathway is the best way forward to realise Australia’s strategic interests.

The authors of this report assert that AUKUS is a generational opportunity for Australia. Its focus on critical Pillar 2 technologies has the potential to bring Australian businesses to the world stage, and lift the nation’s defence industry up to the state-of- the-art in a range of modern capabilities.

The Australian Government requested this independent analysis to assess the Royal Australian Navy’s surface combatant fleet capability to ensure its size, structure and composition complemented the capabilities of the forthcoming conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines.

The authors of this report conducted more than 40 engagements with experts and officials across all three AUKUS governments and three Australian states. Informed by case studies and interviews, this report proposes a series of policy recommendations to the Australian Government.