Australia stands at an inflection point, where the government’s near-term success in preparing its national workforce will determine the future of its defence capability, its alliances and its national economy for decades to come. Under the AUKUS partnership, Australia will share in some of the most advanced defence technology currently available and will become the only non-nuclear power to operate nuclear-powered, conventionally-armed submarines. However, major challenges persist to acquiring a sovereign submarine capability on the schedule laid out in the March 2023 ‘optimal pathway.’ Mobilising a highly-skilled, specialised industrial workforce at scale to deliver this project is foremost among them.

Australia has recently experienced its lowest rate of unemployment in 50 years. There is no major manufacturing ecosystem to draw upon, with an industry dominated by SMEs already facing demand that exceeds capacity. Australian industries are facing expansive skills shortages – none more striking than among tradespeople, technicians and labourers. Further, AUKUS is yet to secure the widespread support of the Australian national public. Without such support, both policy continuity and recruitment efforts are imperilled.

This report proceeds in four case studies. It begins by evaluating expansion efforts in the US Virginia-class submarine workforce, observing that poor early-stage strategic choices and an over-reliance on young recruits had repercussions for workforce productivity. It finds that the implementation of work-integrated learning models, strategic outsourcing of labour to population centres and improvement in public regard for shipbuilding work have improved both recruitment and productivity. A case study analysis of the UK Astute-class program reveals the importance of effective project management and oversight to workforce planning, and the impact of local community social license, skills academies and funded apprenticeships on recruitment and retention. Subsequently, an analysis of AUKUS partners’ rapid expansion of their civil nuclear workforces reinforces the criticality of policy continuity, a clear value proposition to workers and proactive communication on nuclear safety for successful workforce mobilisation. Finally, an assessment of the Australian minerals and energy sectors conveys the unique constraints of the Australian labour market and reveals the need for dedicated, strategic thinking about the contributions of women and skilled migrants to Australia’s AUKUS workforce.