The AUKUS program to deliver eight nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarines to Australia is a large, technologically challenging, and industrially demanding venture that has been widely criticised. This report addresses each of those critiques and concludes that some concerns are warranted but others have been ill-informed or driven by outdated assumptions.

The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have all committed substantial resources to ensure that the submarine program succeeds. Project planning is in an advanced state, programs of industrial expansion and modernisation are well underway, personnel recruitment and training are advancing, and the AUKUS submarine design should be finalised within 18 months.

Although there will be bumps along the way, this report finds that Australia’s new submarines are likely to be delivered broadly as planned and that AUKUS should deliver a powerful new level of deterrence to Australia. 

Key Findings

• Significant progress has already been made in the program to deliver advanced nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. The AUKUS partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom is well placed to deliver on its objectives in a reasonable timeframe.
• A largely unrecognised near-term benefit of AUKUS is that Australia will host up to five allied nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) within three years. These jointly crewed submarines will make a significant contribution to joint deterrence and theatre defence.
• By the mid-2030s, the AUKUS partners will have more than doubled the number of forward-deployed allied SSNs that can be operational in the critical first ten days of any Western Pacific crisis or conflict.
• Personnel expansion for the Royal Australian Navy will be one of the greatest challenges for the AUKUS program. Nevertheless, provided that upskilled Australian engineers and technical specialists are supplemented by British and American experts, this task will likely prove manageable.