The deteriorating security environment and the prospect of nuclear coercion or nuclear use in the Indo-Pacific raise difficult questions for the US-Australia alliance.

This paper proceeds in five parts. Parts one and two sketch out the deteriorating nuclear threat environment in the Indo-Pacific and place major transformations in the US-Australia alliance in this context.

Part three provides a detailed assessment of the alliance’s extended deterrence policy consultations and highlights the need for further reform to right-size these mechanisms for evolving nuclear challenges.

Part four lays out four nuclear scenarios that might stress the alliance’s current policy settings and for which alliance managers require advanced preparation.

Part five provides six policy recommendations that can assist Washington and Canberra in better preparing the alliance to address these challenges.