The swearing-in of Joseph Biden as 46th President of the United States will signal a reset in the strategic relationship between Australia and its US partner. There will be no going back to the pre-Trump days. The world has moved on, and the US has moved on, even if Australia remains locked into a dependency mindset. President Biden’s instincts are global, viewed through a largely European lens. Asia will matter because China matters: Australia’s support will be welcome, but not pivotal. And while the term ‘pivot’ may well return to US regional rhetoric, affording the historical friends of the US a warm inner glow, the facts will be quite different. The recalibration of the US-China bilateral relationship will dominate thinking in both Foggy Bottom and The Pentagon, with the rest of Asia an afterthought at best.

So Australia will need to do its own thinking, reinvesting in both regional institutions and regional coalition-building. This is a formidable diplomatic task, and one that will necessarily engage the US. But the US will not lead it: it will be too preoccupied in dealing with China and in rebuilding its alliance links in NATO. Instead of competing for US attention, Australia will need to paddle its own canoe, creating contemporary foundations for agreed rules and identifying new ways of giving expression to shared strategic goals in the Asian region.