The very different approaches of the major parties to taxation present voters with the starkest choice on offer for decades. This report shows how different taxpayers would fare under the competing tax policies being taken to the 2019 federal election by Labor and the Coalition.

Political science tells us that constituencies emerge around policy settings. The mushrooming of age-based constituencies is making tax reform difficult, with implications for intergenerational equity.

The analysis shows all five Tasmanian electorates are among the biggest losers of the government’s income tax cut plan, inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne are the biggest winners, and South Australia and central and north Queensland get at least 30% per capita less than electorates in Sydney and Melbourne.

This paper argues the Government’s tax plan will make income tax less progressive, with most of the benefit going to those on high incomes.

Despite the hype, the personal income tax system will look pretty similar for the next three years regardless of which party wins office.