This research note examines how the global Iran energy crisis has impacted on the Australian economy, and how its effects are likely to play out across the remainder of 2026. Utilising the most up-to-date economic indicators, it tracks crisis effects across energy prices, inflation, business activity, household spending and the labour market.

This research links the decline in consumer sentiment in Australia to the cumulative, broad-based impact of high inflation on consumer purchasing power. The evidence suggests it is the persistent price pressures, rather than mortgage rates which are driving the pessimism across all household types, suggesting a return to confidence depends on inflation easing back.

Despite discussion about the benefits of indexing tax brackets to the rate of inflation, this paper shows Australians have been better off without the solution to ‘bracket creep’. The analysis reveals that if the Howard Government had introduced the current Liberal policy of indexing tax brackets to inflation, Australians would be paying significantly more tax...

The world is facing a second energy crisis in four years. This report recommends the government act urgently to mitigate the risk of war in Iran from causing long-term damage to the United Kingdom economy and public finances. It explores how an intervention that caps energy prices can limit inflation and insure against the worst...

This analysis reveals that a fair and appropriate increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation in Australia. The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back 30 years, and finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation.