Artificial intelligence (AI) has advanced rapidly over the past decade. It has already transformed some fields, but how the transformation will unfold and what can be done to shape it remains highly uncertain. To keep pace with these developments, this report sets out five scenarios as tools for exploring uncertainty, stress-testing and developing policy.

This article assesses the implications of the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) narrative for policy professionals and in particular, what aspects of coordination and development work should change. The authors argue that by harnessing new technologies and integrating them with long-term planning tools, policymakers can help governments anticipate and reduce the consequences of crisis...

Futures is a systematic exploration of probable, possible and preferable future developments to inform present-day policy, strategy and decision-making. This primer provides an overview of Futures methodologies and their practical application to policy development and advice.

Pressure is building on 21st century regulators to work in new ways – and they are being asked to integrate different perspectives, to anticipate and adapt to emerging challenges.

In response to climate uncertainty, researchers, businesses and policy-makers are turning to scenario analysis. The authors of this paper argue that greater use of models will help policy-makers understand the range of uncertainties and the sensitivity of policy outcomes, based on different model assumptions.