Artificial intelligence (AI) has advanced rapidly over the past decade. It has already transformed fields such as software development and cybersecurity, but how the transformation will unfold and what can be done to shape it remains highly uncertain. To keep pace with these developments, this report sets out five scenarios as tools for exploring uncertainty, stress-testing and developing policy. The scenarios are a tool for policymakers to assess and workshop their strategies and policies against. They provide a structured way of exploring plausible AI futures, supporting more robust policy development. 

Key findings

• AI capabilities will continue to increase.
• AI could deliver widespread positive impacts. 
• AI could cause serious, potentially even existential harms, without government intervention.
• The potential impact on cognitive labour is significant.
• The frontier AI market is expected to remain highly concentrated toward 2030. 
• Adoption continues to increase, but the speed, distribution, and extent of adoption are expected to be varied.
• Global competition is expected to continue, as economies become increasingly reliant on technology to drive growth and spheres of influence emerge, led by the United States and China.