All public sector organisations need to ensure their work and mission remain relevant and valuable in a changing world. This is especially true of organisations that seek to help others understand and adapt to these changes, and the challenges and opportunities they may present.

ABARES and its predecessors have been providing commodity market forecasts for Australia’s agricultural sector since the 1940s, as part of a wider suite of evidence-based analysis and advice to policymakers and industry stakeholders. The operational context of ABARES and the industries we serve has changed a great deal over this period, and there are no signs that future changes will be slower or less profound.

This paper explores the future of public sector agricultural forecasting in the context of the past evolution of ABARES work. It identifies a range of challenges and opportunities for people involved in public sector forecasting, including the usual suspects of globalisation and global change, rapid improvements in information and communication technology, the emergence of big data (in all its forms), and new technology-enabled possibilities for interaction and coproduction of knowledge.

But the paper also goes deeper than this—calling on everyone involved in public sector forecasting to rethink how and why we do our work. It calls us to create new ways of working together and to develop new forecasting and foresighting services.

The paper is written by a keen observer of, and leading contributor to, public forecasting and agricultural policy over the past two decades. The author, Dr Rohan Nelson, is an exemplar of reflective practice and a consistent advocate for recognising the wisdom, distinctive expertise and contributions of diverse stakeholders.