Tomorrow's wars: insights from our four alternative futures

Military operations Defence Airpower Australia

The development of modern air power is faced with a fundamental challenge, since the future is uncertain and air forces need a long lead-time to build. Much effort and significant resources could be expended, with no assurance that an air force so built will be fit for purpose because of the uncertain strategic circumstance of the future. The alternative futures methodology offers a way around this issue.

The ADF’s Future Operating Environment 2035 imagines four alternative future worlds. This monograph examines each of these four worlds to determine the operational demands they might make on the Air Force. These demands are then examined to determine significant issues, potential organisational adjustments and possible changes to Fundamental Inputs to Capability that could make Air Force better prepared for the future.

In looking forward twenty years, this monograph looks beyond short-term imperatives to stimulate the imagination and encourage creative thinking about the uncertain future. This monograph aims to disrupt our preconceptions of what we expect to happen and prepares us for what might happen.

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