IT IS NOW understood and accepted that Asia is in the midst of dynamic economic, political and military power shifts that are reshaping the regional and global strategic order. The rise of China as a potential competitor – at least – with the United States is the most obvious development concentrating the minds of policy analysts everywhere, including in Australia.

But exactly what possible future or futures are implied by the changing power relativities that will follow the reshaping of Asian power relationships? The answer is uncertain and perhaps unknowable. But a new and important report from the Lowy Institute for International Policy has offered four thought-provoking scenarios for the future of Asia and identified four possible shocks that could shape the Asian future.