The indications that favour a new start for the bilateral relationship to take it decisively forward will be explored in this paper, as will contra-indications – a summary of past failures. Recent positive indications include a discussion between Australia’s Prime Minister and India’s President in November 2018 on Australia’s economic plan to engage with India. Deepening defence ties with Australia were endorsed in Minister Pyne’s announcement that India will be a ‘cornerstone’ of the 2019 Indo-Pacific Endeavours activities, while the Foreign Minister’s address to the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi in January this year elaborated a fresh Australian approach to the Indian Ocean region, and a closer partnership with India. The history of the bilateral relationship, however, shows that it has not always been smooth and, while there are substantial arguments in favour of a new start, both governments must hold general elections before mid-2019, delaying the re-set.

Key points:

• There are indications that Prime Minister Morrison’s planned activation of the Varghese Report will stimulate a new start to the Australia-India relationship.
• There are other indicators in new (or re-badged) ventures that the time is right: the Indo-Pacific Endeavours activities in 2019, and the Foreign Minister’s recent speech in New Delhi elaborating on Australia’s Indo-Pacific region intentions.
• Counter-indications revolve around an uneasy past relationship, slow progress with stated objectives, and differing priorities.
• General elections in both countries will delay, but not derail, a new start.