With the Osaka G20 Summit looming, some Chinese analysts and policymakers in Beijing are pessimistic about the prospects for a trade deal with the United States. If they are right, global financial markets are in for a much wilder shock than anything yet seen in this economic quarrel between the United States and China. Yet a deal is possible — and much of it is already agreed. At the same time the consequences of not reaching a deal have become increasingly dire.

Key points:

• With the Osaka G20 meeting looming, Chinese analysts and policymakers visited in Beijing are pessimistic about the prospects for a trade deal with the United States.
• If they are right, global financial markets are in for a much wilder shock than anything yet seen in this quarrel.
• Yet much of a deal has already been agreed, while the consequences of not reaching a deal have become increasingly dire.