Urban environmental planning and growth forecasting using GIS
This paper investigates approaches for predicting patterns of urban growth using tools developed in a geographical information system (GIS) for various planning scenarios. The work is based upon a case study for the Australian coastal town of Hervey Bay. This town is experiencing rapid growth, but is located regionally in an area facing economic decline. The area also has an interesting mix of urban-rural land uses and economic activities, and is considered environmentally sensitive due to its important natural assets. Understanding the nature and spatial extent of future growth patterns is important for evaluating possible impacts of growth. The paper explores methods to reliably forecast the spatial component of growth based upon spatial-temporal analysis of historical map data obtain from satellite imagery.
