Although a global coronavirus pandemic was always a possibility, few probabilistic models would have predicted that this event would occur in early-2020. The magnitude, timing, and velocity of climate-related impacts are similarly uncertain. This report presents climate-related risk scenarios developed by KPMG with The Aotearoa Circle and its government, iwi, corporate, and civil society partners.

The report aims to:

1. Support strategic decision making about the sustainable utilisation of New Zealand’s ocean resources despite inherent uncertainties in the magnitude, timing, and velocity of climate-related impact.
2. Reduce costs and other barriers to effective climate-related risk management by stakeholders across New Zealand’s marine fisheries and aquaculture sector.

The scenarios in this report are intended to challenge conventional assumptions about New Zealand’s future and provide stakeholders with a means of stress-testing policy and investment decisions, as well as potential trade-offs associated with their decisions. During this process, decision-makers are expected to contest and/or embellish our scenarios in light of their unique perspectives on market behaviour, societal dynamics, and political response. This is both a foreseeable and welcome outcome.