This publication assesses the political impact of the draft electoral boundaries for NSW released on Monday 9 November 2020. Submissions on the proposed boundaries are now open until 9 December followed by another fortnight for comments on the submissions. The Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel will finalise the redistribution in the first half of 2021. The new boundaries will apply from the 2023 state election.
This publication does not provide predictions for the 2023 election. The estimated margins provided are best thought of as possible results of the 2019 election had the election been fought on the draft boundaries. The estimates cannot take account of the difference in candidate and campaign effort that would have occurred had the 2019 election had been fought on the new boundaries. The difficulty of splitting polling place catchment areas to match new electoral boundaries, as well as allocating declaration votes to new electorates, means the estimated margins in this publication should be treated as approximations.
All estimates have been calculated based on the actual results of the 2019 election published by the NSW Electoral Commission, and with reference to enrolment transfers and maps published by the Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel. However, responsibility for all calculations, and the assumption underlying them, must rest with the author.