The federal government has committed to develop a package by the end of 2023 to leverage Australia’s competitive strengths in renewable energy, critical minerals and highly skilled workforce to accelerate our other clean industrial and manufacturing capabilities. This report focuses on the opportunity to export emission-free iron, alumina/aluminium and ammonia - energy-intensive commodities with large global markets. This report refers to them collectively as future 'green export industries'.

Australia has impressive natural endowments of (potential) renewable energy and the raw inputs to make green iron, aluminium and ammonia. Over the long-term, these green export industries should thrive in Australia. But in the medium term, the emergence of green export industries is held back by unpredictable technology costs and a global market that gives a significant ‘grey discount’ to emissions-intensive industries.

In the absence of regulation or government support to create markets, large-scale production is unlikely to emerge on its own, despite growing interest from investors.

The report recommends between $60 and $100 billion of public investment in green industry over two decades. It provides principles to guide investment for maximum impact, describes a framework for identifying suitable industries, and suggests strategic mechanisms that policy-makers can consider when designing green export investment strategies.