This report provides a 10-year outlook of investment requirements to maintain reliability for Australia’s National Electricity Market. It highlights that expected investments in new generation, storage and transmission must be delivered on time and in full to maintain a reliable supply of electricity to homes and businesses.

This includes federal and state government schemes, supported generation projects, actionable transmission developments, the coordination of consumer energy resources, and additional demand flexibility.

Key findings

• If delivered on time and in full, then federal and state government programs providing additional renewable generation and dispatchable resources, actionable transmission developments, and coordination of forecast consumer energy resources (CER) would provide sufficient generation capacity to meet growing electricity demand within relevant reliability standards over most of the next 10 years. Timely delivery of these expected investments is critical.
• AEMO also considers a development outlook that includes only energy supply infrastructure developments that meet AEMO’s commitment criteria. If further investment beyond current committed and anticipated projects is delayed or does not materialise, AEMO forecasts reliability gaps will exist over the coming years in some NEM regions. These gaps are smaller than previous forecasts. 
• AEMO will request the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) to put an obligation on retailers and liable entities to enter sufficient contracts to cover their customers peak demand needs, through the retailer reliability obligation. AEMO will also take prudent action and seek to procure additional reserves for the coming 2024-25 summer, safeguarding consumers in a cost-appropriate manner.
• Alongside energy-related investments that support reliability, investments are also required to ensure that the power system remains stable and resilient. As existing synchronous generators retire, there is a need for system strength services across the NEM and for urgent implementation of the recently published National CER Roadmap.