A 10-year outlook, from 2025-26 to 2034-35, on the investments needed to maintain reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM). The report includes two main reliability outlooks: the Government Schemes and Actionable Developments outlook and the Committed and Anticipated Developments outlook. Both assessments reflect an improved reliability outlook relative to the 2024  outlook as committed developments have increased.

The energy transition is well underway for Australia’s NEM. Investments in renewable generation and storage capacity continue to increase, and the pipeline of potential developments continues to expand, providing the means to meet growing demand amidst the steady retirement of coal power stations. 

Considering the large volume of generation retirements, the timely delivery of new generation, storage and transmission, along with the coordination of consumer energy resources to support reliability, remain critical.

Key findings

• Compared to the 2024 Electricity statement of opportunities, forecast reliability has improved.
• Reliability risks in the next five years are primarily triggered by the retirement of large power stations in some regions. Owners have informed AEMO that 11 GW of predominantly coal power stations will retire.
• Electricity consumption is forecast to increase 28%, predominantly driven by the rapid expansion of data centres, the broader inclusion of prospective industrial load and accelerating business electrification.
• Potential reliability risks are able to be mitigated with on-time delivery of new generation, storage and transmission developments, often supported by government-led investment programs and coordinated consumer energy resources.