This report analyses the outcomes of the COP28 climate conference held in December 2023, where 200 countries agreed on ambitious global energy transition goals. It examines the potential impact of these goals on the global energy system and emissions if fully implemented.

The analysis explores the risks of partial implementation and discusses how countries can integrate the COP28 goals into their next round of targets under the Paris Agreement. It emphasizes the importance of translating these goals into domestic energy policies. The paper also addresses the challenges in clean energy investment, the critical role of the next round of national emissions targets, and the importance of continued multilateral cooperation in driving implementation of the COP28 goals.

Key findings

• The goal of doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements globally could provide larger emissions reductions by 2030 than anything else, but it looks far out of reach under today’s policy settings.
• In advanced economies, electrification is the key lever to improve efficiency.
• With today’s policy settings and technology trends, the world is on course to achieve more than three-quarters of the growth needed for the goal of tripling global renewables capacity by 2030.
• If unchecked, emissions from existing coal-fired capacity alone would be enough to push the world across the 1.5 °C threshold.
• More must be done in all countries to make sure that consumers, particularly those with low incomes, can access clean energy.
• If fully implemented, the COP28 goals would set the foundation for achieving ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions, reducing global energy-related emissions by over 60% by 2035.