This briefing paper, designed for journalists but broadly applicable, summarises key findings from the Bureau of Meteorology and the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services’ forecasts for summer 2024-25. It describes the influence of climate pollution on extreme weather events, with increasingly hot, wet and volatile conditions likely to be felt throughout the summer.

The paper includes context and case studies of extreme weather events from recent history, helping to illustrate the broad impacts of the growing intensity, duration and frequency of weather changes due to climate change.

Key findings

• The 2024-25 Australian summer is projected to be hotter and wetter than average, with a high likelihood of extreme weather events.
• Much of the country is likely to experience warmer than average days, and unusually high overnight temperatures for much of northern, eastern and western Australia.
• Climate change, primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is the key driver of the increasingly volatile and unpredictable weather patterns.
• Australia faces increased risks of heatwaves, heavy rainfall and flooding, intense tropical cyclones, and bushfires.
• Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and prolonged, threatening marine ecosystems.
• Compound events, where multiple extreme weather events occur simultaneously or in rapid succession, are becoming more common, posing significant challenges for disaster management.