This report addresses the increasing strategic risks and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait, which have direct and significant implications for Australia’s national security, economic stability and social cohesion. The Taiwan Strait is no longer a remote concern; it sits at the heart of Australia’s strategic conversations about its future in the Indo-Pacific region. 

A crisis in the Taiwan Strait could disrupt Australia’s economic trajectory, disrupt key trade routes, impact Australia’s alliance commitments (such as ANZUS and AUKUS), and exacerbate domestic societal tensions, especially within Chinese and Taiwanese diaspora communities in Australia.

Australian public understanding of Taiwan’s strategic importance remains limited and fragmented, with media coverage often lacking depth and being reactive rather than proactive. This creates challenges for mobilising national support and preparing for contingencies. 

The report highlights the need for consistent, clear and multilingual government communication and preparedness strategies to build social license and resilience in the face of potential crises. Given these evolving risks, the report provides Defence and government with evidence-based insights into current Australian sentiment, institutional awareness and vulnerabilities to misinformation. This is crucial for planning whole-of-nation responses to a Taiwan Strait crisis, enhancing risk management across sectors, and fostering better engagement with diaspora communities and the wider public.

Key findings

• There’s no singular or consistently relied-upon source through which Australians inform themselves about the Republic of China and cross-strait relations.
• Perceptions of crises in the Taiwan Strait are bifurcated between those who believe that such a crisis will have limited impact on Australia and those who believe that it will be an existential crisis for Australia.