The outlook provides a forward-looking assessment of how climate change will shape the Murray–Darling Basin’s environmental, First Nations, social and economic future through to 2050 under existing management arrangements. The outlook provides critical information to help governments, communities and industries plan for transition.

The report finds that the Murray–Darling Basin is virtually certain to become hotter, rainfall likely to become more variable, and droughts very likely to become more frequent and severe. The report highlights that climate change compounds existing challenges like river connectivity, water security and water quality.

The outlook draws upon the three plausible climate futures presented in the 2025 Sustainable Yields project to project Basin outcomes to 2050:

• hotter and slightly wetter – increased rainfall in warmer months could improve runoff in some regions but still bring more intense rainfall events and water quality challenges
• hotter and drier – this is the most likely direction of change in the Basin’s hydroclimate
• hotter and much drier – rainfall and runoff decrease sharply, placing greater pressure on water availability, ecosystems and communities.

The report includes an accompanying technical report.