In a world defined by accelerating geo‑economic competition aimed at reducing China’s control of critical‑minerals markets and supply chains, Australia’s critical‑minerals ambitions hinge on a powerful but tenuous assumption: that the nation will evolve into a major supplier to the United States (US) – its largest investment partner and most consequential strategic ally. Yet today’s market dynamics, policy fragmentation among partners and the US’s own inward‑looking minerals strategy mean that outcome is far from guaranteed.

This report builds on Reclaiming leadership: Australia and the global critical minerals race, updating policy developments across Australia and partner nations, assessing the fast-evolving geo-economic landscape and offering expanded conclusions and recommendations. It draws on contemporary research, industry analysis and government policy statements to map the next phase of global critical-minerals competition – and Australia’s place within it.

Australia’s ability to convert its mineral strength into strategic advantage is being tested by volatile global prices – often shaped by market manipulation – contradictory policies among like-minded nations and rising competition from other mineral-rich nations. Domestically, high construction and energy costs, an uncompetitive company tax system, acute skills shortages, regulatory uncertainty and long approval timelines threaten to blunt Australia’s competitive edge.

This report argues that Australia must now pivot from signing partnerships to fully activating them. That means prioritising the like-minded partners and markets where real supply‑chain integration and volume markets are achievable. China, however, will remain an indispensable market for Australian minerals. It concludes the choice before Australia isn’t whether to be a critical-minerals superpower – it’s whether to be an indispensable node in the world’s most important supply chains. 

Key recommendations

• Diversify outbound supply chains.
• Influence and activate Australia’s agreements with like-minded nations and groupings.
• Integrate investment support arrangements with other nations’ minerals security mechanisms.
• Ensure future availability of resources professionals.
• Enhance infrastructure to improve efficiency and reliability.