Since November 2025 opinion polls have shown a surge towards One Nation in Australia. This report explores the reasons for the surge to the right, including internationally. In this report those with a sense of belongness to a great extent are defined as patriots and labelled as Australia-Firsts. It shows that much of the surge to the right comes from the concerns of patriots. This patriotic constituency is opposed to the prevailing neoliberal economic orthodoxy and to its associated progressive views on cultural values. This constituency is especially opposed to high immigration and to policies promoting multiculturalism. 

The working assumption is that the voters supporting One Nation are not doing so because they have been converted by One Nation’s message. Rather, large numbers of voters already held beliefs close to those identified with One Nation. These voters were there in plain sight, but ignored by the major political parties. The implication is that they are not rusted on One Nation voters. Instead, they are potentially responsive to any party or parties which might put a political agenda close to their beliefs.