Australia’s Baby Bonus, announced in May 2004 and implemented from July 2004, provided a $3,000 payment for each newborn child, aiming to support families and boost fertility rates. 

Twenty years later, this paper explores whether the Baby Bonus shifted the course of these young people’s lives in a measurable way. The paper tracks children born around February 2005 – the point after which births could first reflect conceptions made in response to the Baby Bonus announcement. It compares the lives of those born after February 2005 to those born just before since their conception was not influenced by the policy.  

The research follows both groups through early adulthood across education, labour market engagement, income support receipt and disability support.

Key findings

• Children born from February 2005 onward show no clear differences from those born just before in terms of their rates of high school dropout, engagement in education, training or employment, income support receipt and NDIS participation. 
• Two background measures, community housing and equivalised family income, also do not show clear differences at the February 2005 cutoff, although community housing rates are slightly higher for children born just after February 2005. 
• Across every outcome examined, no evidence was found that the additional children born because of the Baby Bonus experienced worse early-adult trajectories than children who would have been born regardless of the policy.