China’s military build-up is reshaping Asia’s security order and bringing into question Australia’s relative isolation from military threats. This report examines how China’s military build-up to 2035 might challenge assumptions about Australian security by scrutinising China’s long-range military capabilities today and in a decade’s time.

The report finds China’s ability to direct military force against Australia operates primarily through domains other than direct strikes on the Australian landmass. Its ability to interdict Australia’s maritime trade, sever undersea communications infrastructure, conduct sophisticated cyber operations, and project naval power into Australian waters is robust and will grow substantially over the coming decade.

The report notes China can already strike northern Australia with ballistic missiles deployed to its South China Sea outposts, and its capacity to strike the Australian landmass from Chinese territory will grow over the next decade as the DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, and potentially a conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile, grow in service numbers. Two factors could quickly and dramatically escalate the strike threat against the Australian landmass: 

• China could field a new long-range bomber (a crewed or drone aircraft)
• China could deploy existing bombers and missiles to bases closer to Australia.

The report argues China’s military build-up has already eroded US military primacy in the Indo-Pacific, increased the threat to Taiwan, and created structural pressure on regional states to accommodate Beijing’s preferences. It notes these shifts affect Australian security regardless of China’s capacity to strike Australian territory.

An audio option is available.